In 2020-27, the global submarine high-voltage/ultra-high voltage cable market will increase by 22% annually
[Cable Network News] The British commodity research organization CRU stated that as of 2020, the total demand for submarine high-voltage/extra-high voltage cables, including those related to offshore wind farms and submarine interconnection, will account for approximately the total global market for high-voltage cables and ultra-high voltage cables. 22% of the amount.
The global offshore wind power capacity is expected to surge, and the demand for submarine cables will be greatly promoted as a result. By 2027, CRU predicts that submarine high-voltage/ultra-high voltage cables will account for more than 42%, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% between 2020 and 2027. This booming market is getting more and more attention from global power cable manufacturers, which is reflected in the recent announcements, capacity expansions and investment priorities of major manufacturers.
For many wire and cable manufacturers, it is undoubtedly an unforgettable year. The Covid-19 pandemic and related economic weakness have led to a sharp decline in global cable demand. In this challenging period, the HV/UHV cable industry performed better again. In fact, CRU estimates that the demand for low-voltage/medium-voltage power cables fell by 5.7% last year, but the total high-voltage/ultra-high voltage (onshore and subsea) actually increased, in terms of conductor tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year Online calculations increased by 2.9%.
In terms of the growth in demand for core kilometers, despite the economic recession caused by the global pandemic, submarine cables will perform prominently in 2020. In fact, CRU estimates that the submarine HV/UHV cable market will grow by more than 35% in 2020. The rapid growth of submarine HV/UHV cables can be attributed to many unique market factors, such as a relatively small base, longer lead times and higher levels of overall funding.
According to data recently compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the total financing of offshore wind power in the first half of 2020 was US$35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 319%, which is much higher than the record annual figure of US$31.9 billion in 2019. In the first half of this year, investment decisions were made for 28 offshore wind farms, which heralded future cable demand in this end-use sector.
The increase in investment and project rewards in the offshore wind power industry is reflected in the increase in the backlog of manufacturers' subsea orders. For example, just in the world's two major cable giants Prysmian and Nexans, as of the end of the third quarter of 2020, their backlog of submarine high-voltage/ultra-high-voltage cable orders is worth 3.3 billion U.S. dollars. As renewable energy technologies mature, their costs continue to decline, which makes them a competitive alternative to fossil fuel power plants. This, coupled with the Paris Agreement’s commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, has led to a surge in deployments.
The increase in the competitiveness of renewable energy sources shows that the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) has continued to decline. LCOE is an indicator that measures the average cost of power generation throughout the life cycle of a power plant. In fact, solar photovoltaic and offshore and onshore wind energy are all within the cost of fossil fuels, which suggests that energy costs are similar.
This is driven by improved technology, economies of scale, a growing developer experience, and an increasingly competitive supply chain. The decline in wind power LCOE is due to the use of larger wind turbines, which means lower infrastructure, maintenance and wiring costs per kilowatt hour. Compared with traditional energy, lower cost and policy focus on decarbonization have led to the prosperity of renewable energy. In fact, according to IRENA data, renewable energy accounted for 72% of all new capacity added in 2019.
So far, offshore wind power is the most important type of renewable energy to meet the demand for high-voltage/extra-high-voltage cables. It is the only type of renewable energy that always requires high-voltage cables and often uses ultra-high-voltage cables. On the other hand, onshore wind energy and solar photovoltaic power plants occasionally use high-voltage cables for grid connection, and overhead conductors are also widely used.
Offshore wind power applications use HV/UHV cables mainly including output cables, which transmit electricity from offshore substations to onshore power grids. The total distance can be more than 5-100 kilometers, depending on the location of the offshore wind farm; the second is the array cable, connecting each turbine to the offshore substation platform; and between the platform and the platform, or connecting the offshore substation to the sea The connection cable of the conversion station platform.
CRU believes that during the period 2021-2027, output cables will become the largest offshore wind power terminal consumer for high-voltage/extra-high voltage cables. CRU predicts that the number of offshore wind farms will triple between 2021-2027 and reach 309 by 2027. This reflects an average of 29 new offshore wind farms being added every year. This forecast is basically consistent with the Global Wind Energy Commission's forecast of 146 GW of global installed capacity in 2027.
In terms of the location of offshore wind farms in the future, Europe and China (mainly mainland China) will continue to be the main markets, accounting for 57% and 24% of the new installed capacity, respectively. This is a decline from their historical share, which reflects the growing importance of the US and Taiwanese markets. More specifically, the United States and Taiwan of China are expected to account for 12% and 5% of the future market, respectively.
Taking the submarine interconnection market into account, CRU estimates that the total demand for submarine high-voltage/ultra-high voltage cables will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 22% during 2020-2027. Among them, the demand for submarine cables related to the offshore wind power industry will grow at a faster compound annual growth rate of 27% during the same period. This includes submarine cables for output, array and platform-to-platform applications.
Due to the continuous replacement of medium-voltage array to high-voltage array cables, the growth rate of array cables is the highest, with a compound annual growth rate of 66%. In fact, if we add high-voltage/medium-voltage array applications together, this segment will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18% within the forecast range. Overall, during 2020-2027, the offshore wind power industry's demand for HV/UHV cables will be 5.6 times that during 2014-2020.
In terms of regions, the European offshore wind power industry has the largest demand for HV/UHV cables, while North America has the fastest growth. More specifically, European demand will be driven by strong project pipelines in Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France and the Netherlands. The high growth rate in North America partly reflects its current smaller market size and large-scale project pipelines in the United States. It is expected that 24 offshore wind farms will be commissioned during the forecast period.
As far as China is concerned, 2020 is a record year, with the country accounting for half of all new offshore wind power installations in the world. The 2020 high will bring down China's mid-term compound annual growth rate (2020-2027) to 15.4%, while the 2019-2027 compound annual growth rate is 23.7%.
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